Key Links Clint Follows | Clint's blog on economic trends
Best Source Aggregators with links to data
Calculated Risk
The best presentation and explanation of data using charts that I know of
Census Bureau
Summary with links to charts, reports most recent at top, often with superb charts
NBER List of Upcoming Releases n
National Bureau of Economic Research, they "call" the start and stop of a recession
Pending upcoming authorative reports with links
St Louis Federal Reserve - FRED data
Online charts you can define, use their templates or search for data series
FederalReserve h.15 daily, weekly
Daily release, weekly summary for past week released on Monday
Unemployment to Total Capacity Utilization
St Louis Fred TCU and EMRATIO Clint Analysis
Total Capacity Utilization -2m, Unemployed % of Total Population -1m
Consumer Spending
PCE YoY % Change
Personal Consumption Expenditures 2005 Chained Dollars -m
Generally, > 2.5% PCE increase from previous year sustains 3% or > GDP growth
PCE YoY to Private Industry Hourly Earnings YoY Percent Change
Historically, downward change in individual's real average hourly earnings (usually inflation affects)
very early (12 m or more) lead to PCE decline (see AheadoftheCurve-thebook.com)
Consumer Sales MoM
Rate of Change -abt12bd -m
% change month on month on consumer sales, make a judgement on the 52 week chart.
Even with seasonal swings, trending down since 2006.
Credit and Liquidity -- reported daily
LIBOR US Over Night (adjust chart period to 5 years)
London Interbank Offered Rate from British Banking Association
Overnight cost of borrowing in USD. Moves up, credit tightening.
Ted Spread 3 month (adjust chart period to 5 years)
Treasury-bill to Euro Dollar spread in bps. Spread widening, liquidity being withdrawn.
LIBOR US 3 month term (adjust chart period to 5 years)
London Interbank Offered Rate
Interest rate for bank unsecured loans. Moving up, credit tightening.
VIX
Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, implied volatility in S&P 500 index options next 30 days.
Moving up, options cost more, investors expect market to be more volatile.
2YR USD Swap Spread (adjust chart period to 5 years)
The spread between the rate to exchange floating currency fixed interest payments and Treasury yields for two years notews.
A SWAP is a form of insurance, in the event the underlying securities will not make payments, the seller of the swap pays the interest and receives the underlying security. The spread is the relative "cost" of the insurance.
Housing -- for last month or quarter
Delinquent +30 +60 +90 days
past due % of all loans mjsd5thBD -q
To deciper, issued in Mar, Jun, Sep, & Dec on 5th Business Day for previous quarter's data
At least two months time late.
Foreclosures % of loans mjsd5thBD -q
At least, two months time late
New Home Sales 4thW -m
Annual pace of sales from Census & HUD
(SAAR seasonal adjusted annual rate 000)
For new construction reported upon a deposit at any stage of construction.
Months Supply Supply New Homes 4thW -m
See 1st page of Census press release in PDF
Pending Home Sales 4thW -m
MoM (month on month) % change pending home sale index
Contract signed to buy previously owned home, waiting on escrow about 2 months out. Similar to New Home Sales after deposit.
Existing Home Sales 4thW -m
Annual pace of sales (SAAR 000,000)
Report after closing escrow.
Months Supply Existing Homes 3rdTh -m
Months of supply of existing homes.
Normal is about 7 months or less. '
National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Contribution to GDP -q
Breakout of GDP from private investment (new homes) and housing services from BEA GDP data
Since 1970 -2009 averaging 18.1%, last 6 quarters through 10Q1 15.5%
Business Cycle & Analysis
Ahead of the Curve
Superb l/t analysis of business cycle, link to chart, leading indicator for increased consumer spending. Updated infrequently.
Last 8/7/2010
Others
Business Cycle Investor Links
A consulting firms aggregates multiple sources with links |
