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Scenarios

Overview

Use scenarios to refine your view of the future until it is robust enough to prepare you to deal for range of outcomes that might develop and formulate your strategy.

It is an iterative approach. You update the scenarios periodically always asking: How will you fit in? What core skills must be improved?

Develop four views of the future and ask smart folks from inside and outside your organization to assess the view's impact in today's real world.

You want to understand early. First, you spot the demand (the signal) and then you understand the drivers, the events in the real world that will drive you into that business: technology advances, supply of resources, demographic trends.

This prepares your leaders to adapt and is also a superb way to overcome perception problems and bureaucratic resistance. To skip ahead, go to the Meetings Chapter on scenarios.