Steps
Start with a focused question - take an educated guess.
Have two or three folks prepare overviews with some rough numbers.
Interview other key players to confirm the scenarios seem reasonable.
Use graphics — like consumer needs/demands, business needs/demands,
delivery structure or the macro-environment — to present the
scenarios to the folks who will participate.
Off-site, if possible, have the teams discuss the detail and hone
the discussion to identify the likelihood of major change, the signals,
and the drivers that will force you to change your business. This
should be a very well run facilitated meeting, so the participants can think.
Have a framework in place to capture the results and present to
those leaders who have not been through the exercise, but will go
through it.
Repeat the process with at least two team exercises before any
major decision will be taken. In the interim, two or three folks
study to validate the drivers and estimate the timing when you must
act.
Why four scenarios
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Bottom-up 
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