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Article Archive
The coming months are going to be very difficult for the leaders who are trying to reposition for the recovery. It's our nature to try to move early into growth strategies to beat competitors. That is the wrong approach!
Recession creates the conditions for a recovery. Excesses are cleaned up: inventories reduced, debts paid off, bad debts written off, savings increase, assess values drop, making them more attractive, and then folks star buying again. Trying to grow fast would be a mistake!
The most important hints of the dawn of the recovery are in three areas: bank interest expense, reduced new housing start clearing inventory, consumer real discretionary income growing slowly.
In my life experience , "a few bad apples spoil the barrel," and the ones with integrity trying to clean up the mess will be overwhelmed by reaction to the few who caused the mess. Cooler heads will suffer. My daughter summed it up: bummer.
May 2009 - Green Shoots
The mid-March and April market rally suggests equity investors are anticipating the recovery. There has been good news. A text book recovery would see the stock markets react to the good news about 60% to 70% of the way through the recession as firms prepare for a rapid recovery. But, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger disagree.
June 2009 - Housing Will Not Lead Us Out
Spending on our homes is a fundamental driver of the US economy. A "driver" is a trend in the community, that as it builds momentum, triggers economic growth and creates opportunities for your business and your family.
December 2009 - Use Scenario Planning to Adapt As We Emerge From This Recession
Scenario planning is an efficient, cost-effective method used to observe, understand and adapt to economic, social, technical and political developments that will impact your organization, community and region.
February 2010 - A Strategic Planner's Responsibility is to Anticipate Consumer Demand
A consensus emerging is in 2010 we will see a slow recovery, with a chance of a double dip. Company strategists, consultants and planning teams will be challenged to manage the pace of growth as they assess consumer spending patterns. |
