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Nominal PCE Yoy Percentage Change to Current Personal Savings Rate

When the PCE rate of growth compared to the previous years, improves folks are usually saving more to restore their family balance sheet after a rececession. The Savings rate then peaks, lags (the angle of the arrows).

When folks feel comfortable, saving rates begin to decline and within 12 months PCE declines, unless real hourly earnings are improving (see the second chart below from St Louis FED's Fred Database).

The exceptions were when inflation was very high and people felts savings were be erroded by inflation and when folks refinanced to continue to support their lifestyles.