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Team-based Forecasting

Objectives

"It is not chess or a formula on an Excel spread sheet, its herding smart cats."

 

Grpahic - strategy is not chess

 

Many expect a strategy to layout the explicit steps, like a game of chess. They want a formal, deliberate process with all facts, figures, and forecasts complete. Just plug those numbers in, and the strategy pops out of a magic box. It doesn't work that way. No one has the time or money to anticipate every outcome and even the best forecasts are seldom close. We can make reasonable estimates of the costs to build a building, even a space shuttle, but accurately predicting the future is still complex. When you figure out how to do that, you'll be so rich, you won't need strategic planning.

Rather, the leaders, all the way down to the department level, need an intuitive understanding of their organization, so they can work together like an experienced sports team. Before you implement, the key players study - you can't avoid the study - pick a route, agree objectives and discuss the issues to the level of detail needed to prepare their budgets. At the business unit and firm level, you have to plan how you will generate the funds to make the capital improvements, from cash flow from operations, debt or equity.

The leaders must manage the process and frame the challenges so everyone is motivated to learn and the environment fosters communication and innovation. That will be a challenge if your leadership expertise is more technical than working with people.

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