While in the Navy, I was honored to work with some of the finest analysts
in the world, who were anticipating the demise of the Soviet Union. They
came from the Rand Corporation, CIA, military intelligence, Department
of Commerce and other government organizations. We had the funds, people
and time to study scenarios in detail.
Most businesses, non-profits and local governments don't have that much
money or time. What I'm suggesting is learn to do "down and dirty"
analyses. Don't collect masses of data, rather learn to quickly review,
analyze, spot patterns and share your conclusions.
First, you cannot predict the future precisely , so don't waste your
money trying to be
absolutely right. As you formulate strategy, filter your information through the
80/20
rule. Identify the information that will have
the most impact?
Second, most leaders I met have relied on only four or five key
discriminators to make a decision. After all the study and debate, they
expected these four or five "drivers" to have most effect.
Strategic thinkers must approach the research wearing their leadership
hat.
