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In
the Action Plans chapter,
I went through the calculations to estimate the cash flow for one action
plan. In this chapter, I'm
going to demonstrate how to compute, using discounted cash flow, the
value added from a multi-year strategy with many action plans.
As we
go through the
calculations, I'll describe some questions
about and approaches for selecting the discount rate, and using net
present value (NPV), present value (PV) and calculating the terminal value. I recommend
you read the entire chapter.
A Story
A brazen, talented salesperson, a gray haired
contrarian from the 18th century, and the boss chanced to meet at Starbucks and
got into
a discussion about estimating
a strategy's value. (Right - its a fairy tale.)
The brazen, very successful salesperson said that the challenge is most
important. Stretch. Reach for the stars. Prove over and over again how
great we, our company, is and will be. Don't take no for an answer, find
a way to get it done. Put me in the game, now, coach. We are the best!
A positive attitude and relationships. There is no limit to the up-side.
Numbers are about
possibilities, about expectations.
The contrarian said we know how to be successful, through ups and downs,
great ideas and bad. Been there, done that. Play to your strengths, be
respected by your customers, lots of smarts, little steps will take you
to the top of the mountain. Shortcuts, over-confidence, will bury you
under an avalanche of loses. Our history has taught us about what it
costs to get new customers.
We know what numbers are reasonable and when someone is blowing smoke.
The boss sipped her coffee and thought a minute.
 Action
Plans - Key Points
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What does "the boss" think  |
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